Weather Prediction in Australia | Jason Siu

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Post

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Published

slug

weather_prediction

summary

This is to create the best model that can predict if it is going to be cloudy tomorrow for 10 locations in Australia.

Cloudy or not in Australia ?

What is this ?

This is to create the best model that can predict if it is going to be cloudy tomorrow for 10 locations in Australia.

Why am I doing it? (Motivation)

Apply the concepts learnt at school. To compare different machine learning models and find the best one using R.

The process of this modelling

Data Exploratory

Data pre-processing

Spilt the data into training and testing sets (70% and 30%)

Implement a classification models to predict the cloudiness: • Decision Tree • Naïve Bayes • Bagging • Boosting • Random Forest

Comparison based on confusion matrix and report the accuracy of each model

Comparison based on AUC

Choose the best model

Implement an Artificial Neural Network classifier and report its performance

Data source

This dataset is a edited the Kaggle competition data: Predict next-day rain in Australia (Rain in Australia | Kaggle); but instead, this is to predict if the following day will be cloudy. The data contains a number of meteorological observations as attributes, and the class attribute “CloudTomorrow”. Details of the decision attributes please refer to the photo "DataDesc.png".